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Short Learning Programme
in
Scenario Development
Uncertainty is one of the biggest challenges for management in all sectors of strategic management. All managers need predictability to put comprehensive strategic plans together. In the absence of predictability, scenarios constitute one way of developing a “future history”, enabling strategic managers to develop a sense of future developments to create a predictable environment in some way. Government and businesses together need to apply the environmental scanning approach towards a better and detailed understanding of the business environment in terms of its political, economic, environmental, social and legal dimensions. Scenario thinking and planning can assist in developing a strategic mind-set with creative thinking, systems thinking and a strategic approach to decision-making.

Purpose of the course:

Participants will learn a detailed understand of the theories of change and futures research that underlies scenario planning. Participants will learn more about the scenario design and its historical developments, the comprehensive scenario development process, and how to construct scenarios. Participants will furthermore learn where scenario development is placed within the strategic planning process and what the relationship is between scenarios and strategic management is. Participants will also learn about environmental scanning methods and techniques, as well as how to study trends, trend breaks, issue analysis and what key uncertainties are.

Admission requirements:

Admission requirements: 
None.
Learning assumed to be in place: 
National Senior Certificate or an equivalent NQF Level 4 qualification. A formal qualification in a middle management programme or a Bachelor’s degree or an applicable diploma in management sciences, marketing or human resource management. Basic planning and managerial experience or exposure.

Course outcomes and assessment criteria :

Course outcomes and the associated assessment criteria: 

Study Unit

Outcomes

Assessment Criteria

  After completion of this course, participants will: Participant will be assessed on the following criteria:

Module 1

Scenario-thinking

Futures studies and research,

Management of change, Paradigms,

Scenarios,

Scenario planning,

Scenario methodology

  • Detailed knowledge and understanding  of the concept of futures research;
  • Understanding the origins of scenarios;
  • Understanding the principles change and the management of change;
  • Detailed knowledge of paradigms, ideology and perception on thinking about the business environment.
  • Understanding the role of scenarios in the strategic management process.
  • Demonstrate competence in defining a scenario.
  • Identify different types of scenarios and their different uses.
  • Explain/ discuss the of concept of Futures Research and the origins of scenarios;
  • Discuss the origins and use scenarios in strategic planning;
  • Apply the principles change and the management of change;
  • Display knowledge of paradigms, ideology and perception on thinking about the business environment in workshop context.
  • Point out the role of scenarios in the strategic management process.
  • Confirm competence in defining a scenario by applying the skill in a workshop.
  • Differentiate between different types of scenarios and their different uses.

Module 2

Developing Scenarios

Environmental scanning,

Trends and trend-breaks,

Key uncertainties,

Strategic management,

Strategy,

Scenarios,

Scenario matrix,

Explorative scenarios, Normative scenarios, Scenarist,

Scenario narrative.

  • Demonstrate the ability to engage in environmental scanning in terms of the STEEP or PESTEL model.
  • Actively participate in scenario planning and to prioritise trends, identify trend-breaks and prioritise key uncertainties;
  • Demonstrate competence in mastering the scenario development process;
  • Demonstrate competence in developing a scenario matrix;
  • Demonstrate competence in facilitating a scenario workshop;
  • Demonstrate competence in developing a scenario narrative and scenario themes; and
  • Demonstrate competence in developing and presenting comprehensive scenarios.
  • Analyse the business environment in terms of the STEEP or PESTEL approach.
  • Rank trends, trend-breaks and prioritise the key uncertainties
  • Integrate the scenario development process;
  • Design a scenario matrix;
  • Facilitate a scenario workshop;
  • Create a scenario narrative and scenario themes; and
  • Construct and present a comprehensive set of scenarios.

 

Assessment: 
Portfolio of Evidence consisting of a case study and developing of scenarios.
Method of assessment: 
Evaluating Portfolio of Evidence

Additional information

H39 100 1
Mode of delivery: 
Contact
Target group: 
Managers in general.
Contact us
Name: 
UCE
E-mail: 
Telephone number: 
018 285 2821